Time Is Right For Linux

Apr 1, 3:24 PM (ET)

By BRIAN BERGSTEIN



BOSTON (AP) - The free Linux operating system handles big tasks like
running supercomputers and ATMs. Now Linux has a chance to finally crack
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)'s hold on computing's most visible domain -
mainstream PCs - because of the rise of innovative, inexpensive machines.

Of course, prognosticators perennially say Linux is on the verge. It gets
high marks for security and stability and is widely used behind the
scenes in corporate servers, making it a natural candidate to steal
desktop thunder from Microsoft's dominant Windows. And yet Linux PCs
still represent less than 2 percent of the market.

This time, though, there's actually evidence of momentum.

While the best features in the latest Windows release, Vista, require top-
notch configurations that can quickly ramp up a PC's price, one of the
hottest segments of the industry involves inexpensive computers.

Laptops under $400 are real possibilities now, and some of the most buzz-
worthy use Linux, such as Asustek Computer Inc.'s EeePC and the One
Laptop Per Child Foundation's $200 "XO" computer for schoolchildren.
Linux also is available on slim little "netbooks" being pushed by Intel
Corp. (INTC)

Not only is Linux essentially free to the PC vendor, but the operating
system also is better suited than Vista for cheap PCs' spartan hardware
designs. (Windows XP is available on scaled-back PCs like Intel's
Classmate, but it's unclear what will happen after Microsoft soon stops
selling XP to the general public.)

Amazon.com's top-selling PCs include several Asustek Linux machines.
Although Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) recently stopped a test run of
selling Linux PCs in some stores, the company says it will continue to
offer them online.

Business computing suppliers are finding open-source desktops especially
gaining traction in cost-conscious developing markets. For example, IBM
Corp. and Linux vendor Red Hat Inc. (RHT) recently launched Microsoft-
free desktops for Eastern Europe.

One buyer is Aleksandar Spagnut, a director of Moscow-based Rushotel,
which needed new desktop PCs for a hotel-building project. Spagnut said
his company saved 30 to 35 percent over comparable Windows machines. He
added that Linux PCs are now common enough that a snowball effect is
emerging, whereby technical support and "drivers" - which essentially
tell programs how to interact with hardware - are much easier to find.

"This really makes the difference," he said.

Linux might benefit from a changing conception of what computers are for.
With the rise of Web-based applications that reduce the need for desktop-
bound software, more of the action comes through an Internet browser now.
The feel of the underlying operating system is less important.

That means Linux consumers can get a lot out of their computers even if
they are put off by what many reviewers still cite as Linux's biggest
flaw: its uneven user-friendliness. Some tweaks to Linux machines require
higher-than-average computing savvy, although this is less of an issue
than in the past.

Perhaps more importantly, if the desktop operating system fades further
into the background, PC makers could have greater incentive to save money
on it by offering Linux. The price that big PC manufacturers pay
Microsoft for Windows varies and is not disclosed, but is believed to
commonly exceed $50 per PC.

"I'm a big believer in the inevitable forces of economics - they're like
glaciers," said Mark Shuttleworth, CEO of Canonical Ltd., which this
month is releasing a new version of Ubuntu, a leading version of Linux
that can run PCs. "Glaciers carve out terrain. It takes time."

Linux on the desktop doesn't have to take off like crazy to really start
to matter. Of the 981 million PCs in existence worldwide last year, 1.7
percent ran Linux, according to Gartner Inc. (IT) That sounds paltry. But
Apple's Mac operating system accounted for just 2.5 percent, and Apple is
considered a significant, influential alternative to Windows.

"Every point is billions of dollars to Microsoft," says Jim Zemlin, head
of The Linux Foundation, a consortium devoted to advancing Linux. His
group is meeting with top PC makers next week in Austin, Texas, in hopes
of accelerating their efforts to sell Linux machines.

The top PC makers have so far treaded carefully. Dell Inc. (DELL)'s Web
site sells Ubuntu computers in a separate section for open-source PCs,
out of direct comparison with Windows machines. Dell spokeswoman Anne
Camden said the placement reflects the fact that Linux is still not a
mainstream consumer product.

Linux is partly hampered by its greatest asset: its widely dispersed
nature.

Linux is a core set of code called a kernel; developers build different
layers of software on top of it to serve different computing purposes.
(Open-source providers make money by charging for add-on services, such
as technical support or security upgrades.)

As a result, Linux comes in many flavors, known as distributions,
fracturing the push Linux might otherwise make. In fact, some programs
written for one distribution don't work in another.

"We haven't figured out to how to federate the marketing of the
technology as well as we've figured out how to develop the technology,"
Zemlin acknowledged.

.

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